While I am of the belief that presidential primaries occur much too early, and that we should be focused on other issues more pressing than an election that is more than a year away, I am sensing a disturbing shake up in the Republican party in 2008.
The modern day GOP is made up of a very uneasy coalition of conservative Christians and limited government fiscal conservatives. The contrast in the two groups beliefs is becoming more and more evident with every passing day, and it looks like it may really come to a head in the '08 presidential election. Conservative Christians are now threatening that if the GOP nominates a candidate that does not support their policies wholeheartedly, they will form a third-party and present their own candidate. Specifically, as Rudy Giuliani continues to climb in the polls, this groups of social conservatives can only focus on his pro-abortion stance.
To say that abortion is a contentious issue is like saying the grass is green, and I have personal reservations about the former New York politician's beliefs as well. However, history has shown that this fragmentation of our party would lead to disaster. Let us go back to the election of 1912. Teddy Roosevelt, who had elected not to run for a second full term in 1908 because of his inheriting the presidency from the assassinated William McKinley, decided to run again in 1912 because of his dissatisfaction with William Howard Taft. He created the Bull Moose Party, and fragmented the Republican party, so even though the two Republican candidates won 7.6 million votes, Woodrow Wilson won the election with 6.3 million votes and 435 electoral votes. The result would be very similar if the conservative Christians try to fragment the Republican party today. The difference: it would not be the great statesman Woodrow Wilson assuming the presidency, but perhaps the much more scary prospect of Hillary Clinton. Nobody wants that.
While I appreciate the gravity of many of these very difficult issues, there is much more to politics than feelings on social issues such as abortion. Republicans have to get back to focusing on government and trying to solve our domestic and foreign problems. If we allow social issues to split all of us with similar beliefs, we will wind up with four years in which ALL Republicans will be unhappy. Call it politics, call it unfair, call it the system: it doesn't matter. It's the truth.
